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Canada status 24.12.05


Some basic data [latest]

==Latest GDP growth 2.7%
==GDP growth expected for 06 2.9%
==Industrial Production growth 1.7%y/y
==Unemployment 10.05 6.6%
==trade balance positive $49bn
==Current account positive $16bn
==Budget balance 05 positive 1.2% of GDP

Short news
== A no confidence vote felled the ruling liberal government paving the way for general elections in January 06, only 19 months after the previous elections.

== Economic growth seems to be increasing this year helped again by booming commodity prices Employment improves and corporate profits are solid.

== Fiscal policy leads to a significant surplus.

==Canada has a strong positive trade balance, which allows the country to be open for imports. Could be interesting for Nepali exports.

== Wonderful time. On the one side Alberta & Saskatchewan are celebrating their Centenary. On the other side prices for oil and other commodities are soaring. Long stretches of highway are being resurfaced and widened. In city centers new apartments, malls and office blocks are rising, while on the outskirts new factories are sprouting. "Help wanted' signs are everywhere.

== Canada is the biggest supplier of oil and gas to the US as it has reserves second only to Saudi Arabia.

== Who is land wise bigger than Canada? Well only Russia.

== Exports to China up 40%y/y making Canada one of the few countries world wide that has seen exports to China soar

== Go west is the latest motto, as the west is developing fast due its riches of commodities and its close links to a rising Asia.


Over all economy

China or at least the commodities boom prompted by it's industrialization is reshaping Canada's economy . The engines of growth in the 1990s cars and high-tech industries have slowed down. Old investment sectors such as mining have been reborn and have become the new stars

Natural resources, construction and services are now the three fastest growing sectors. Natural resources and notably energy account for 60% of Canada's exports This is good news for the resource rich western provinces of Alberta and British Columbia but less so for Ontario where manufacturing has been hit hard by an appreciation of the Canadian dollar and the continuing troubles of the north American carmakers .

The Job market has been turned upside down as well. Youth in rural Canada where jobs are on offer in mines, oilfields and forests are now less likely to be unemployed than their urban counterparts. Since 2000, blue-collar work has grown more rapidly than white-collar employment. Workers are scarce in Alberta where the unemployment rate is with 3.4% half the national average of 6.8%. Employers sometimes are so despaired to find workers, that they refer to unusual efforts, like handing out free iPods, free transport and the chance of a university scholarship
The soaring price of oil and other commodities has prompted a surge in investment. Some C$46bn of new investment was announced beginning 05 alone in the province of Alberta to explore and produce oil. Railway lines are being built, ports expanded, and oil and gas pipelines laid. Investment cycles in Canada generally run for seven to ten years and this one is just at its beginning .

Trade in goods between Canada and China though growing fast was still only C$29bn in 04. China's biggest impact on Canada has been the influence of its headlong economic growth on commodity prices. High prices for these kind of exports lifted Canada's trade surplus with C$ 66bn last year to new highs. These economic shifts have their own complications as money comes in, other provinces want to share the income and there is growing tension over how.
Foreign exchange dealers now treat the Canadian dollar as a petrocurrency. That points to its current strength but raises two fears. One is of eventual bust when oil prices fall. The other is of what economist call "Dutch Disease", a condition in which primary exports lead to a strong currency which squeezes local manufacture.

Worst of all is the blow to national pride. After decades of trying, the country seems to have failed to become a high-tech economy. Its main exports include basic chemicals, metals and minerals. Yet the grief seems to be over done as Canada's hightech sectors are also growing.



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