Some basic data (latest)
==Latest GDP growth 8.1% trend upwards with industrial
production up 7.3%y/y and services up 9.9%y/y.
==Industrial Production growth 7.3%y/y
==Foreign reserves $134bn
==trade balance negative $37bn trend worsening
==Current account negative $16bn trend worsening
Short news
== Long misruled Bihar voted for change. Laloo Prasad
Yadav reigned Bihar directly and indirectly for 15
years in which time Kidnapping against ransom became
a growth industry and poverty, illiteracy, corruption
and violence thrived.
==Indian real estate prices are shooting through the
roof. In Mumbay you will have to spend NPRs110 mio
per Ropani. Not too bad. ($31.6mio per hectar) and
that is not the end of the story. Two reasons are
behind. First investors are betting on the consumption
driven growth of India's economy, leading to glitzy
shopping malls, entertainment centers, multiplexes
and luxury hotels. The other reason is India's emergence
as a hub for global outsourcing. Foreign direct investment
is coming in to finance infotech parks. Now also Indian
banks are prepared to invest huge amounts to finance
commercial and residential properties. In all the
glamour there stays one risk, that is the absence
of clear titles to property making the risk of litigation
high.
== Central fiscal deficit close to
10% of GDP which means fiscal consolidation remains
a key challenge.
== Trade balance strongly negative
but current account helped by ongoing Foreign Direct
Investments.
Education in India
Despite many problems the number
of people attending universities in India nearly doubled
in the 90s to 9.4mio, The price of this has been an
overall quality decline. But India has two valuable
things. One is its collection of elite institutions
like the All India Institute of Medical Sciences ,
the Indian Institute of Science in Bangalore and the
Indian Institute of Technology. These institutions
take the cream with every year application of 180000
hopefuls competing for 3500 places. These institutions
produces a stream of highly educated people who help
to set professionals standards and help to keep India
plugged into the global knowledge economy.
While the elite institutions produce
many people who get brain-drained away, they also
keep many bright people from emigrating and may even
attract NRI back if the economy keeps booming. Nowadays
the brightest students stay in India, while the second
best go to America.
The latest development is a booming
private universities sector, which still has problems
but the best private colleges are doing admirable
work responding to demand for technical and managerial
technicians often in highly creative ways.
India a country of chances
India has become increasingly prominent
in the world economy and trade flows in the last decade.
Economic reforms implemented from 1991 have stimulated
growth in productivity, investment and trade. As a
result, India’s economy was one of the world’s
fastest growing large economies over the last ten
years, with average GDP growth of 6.2% per year. Nonetheless,
India faces significant challenges, particularly in
managing the fiscal deficit, developing infrastructure
and ensuring increased gains from liberalization.
Travelling in India
One of the fastest growths of air
travelling is registered in India. At the Paris Air
show this month alone India placed billions of US$
in orders. 3 Indian airlines took 20 jets from Boeing
and 125 from Airbus.
No doubt Indian aviation is taking of at an extra-ordinary
fast rate. 6 new airlines are planning to enter the
market this year. While in the first quarter of 05
domestic air travel rose 25% year on year the international
travel staid with 20% year on year growth not far
behind..
Sure the high growth rate in India
reflects the fact that the aviation market there comes
from a low base. From 1bn people only about 20 million
or 2% traveled by air last year and this percentage
is sure to increase over the coming years strongly.
While the Indian government opened the doors to new
domestic carriers and is trying to increase competition
on international routes, the development of its airports
lacks far behind. With now 192 aircraft in operation
and 490 aircraft scheduled to arrive in the next 10
years the infrastructure of airports might become
a serious problem in the next 2 years. But the development
is wonderful for pilots and stewards/ stewardesses
who also become a scarcity seeing a golden future
with wages up significantly.
Electricity shortage may put brakes on India's speed
of development
Supply of power
Permanent power cuts are a way of
life in India and the shortage is worsening. Over
the past decade, electricity generation has grown
at an annual rate of 5.5% per year, but the demand
has grown faster. That's in the urban area. In the
rural area electrification is slow and just 44% of
households in rural area have connections to the grid.
Indians industries long used to the failings of the
national grid has survived by building its own generating
plants. One problem of the shortage is that tariffs
are covering one average just 75% of supply cost,
means that suppliers of electricity loose trillions
of ICs, which damaged their ability to add distribution
capacity and to carry out basic maintenance. This
happened despite an increase of tariffs of 20% since
2000.
The Indian government is now looking
for alternatives of electricity production. India's
nuclear industry which supplies up to now about 2%
of the electricity got a boost when Manmohan Singh
went to US in July and secured American help. Other
areas have attractive potential as well. Hydro power
already produces a quarter of India's needs and can
be increased . Other renewable forms of energy are
wind power solar power, and bio fuels which can be
tapped more to substitute coal, for the time being
the biggest energy producer. Don't forget another
point, that is enhancing of energy efficiency.
FOREIGN INVESTORS
WELCOME IN INDIA
Foreign investors interested in India's financial
sector normally agree on two things.
1.The earning potential in India with its fast-growing
economy and burgeoning middle class is high. 2.India's
bureaucratic and protectionist traditions place tight
and complicated limits on foreign ownership.
Now the door seems to open. Foreigners will be allowed
to take a stake of up to 49% in companies managing
distressed assets. Portfolio investors may buy a up
to 49% in an offer for sale, with single buyers limited
to 10%.
India’s volume of bad loans is estimated at
IC 595bn ($13.6bn) or about 5% of all banks' loans
Allowing foreigners to buy NPL should bring welcome
cash to the banks. But according to some the rules
may prove too restrictive to attract large foreign
investments while others are more optimistic.
Fears that foreigners would scoop Indian assets on
the cheap seems to be the main reason lying behind
the restrictions. Those fears might be overblown.
While in East Asia the collateral for bad loans was
often property, the price of which soared when economies
recovered; in India the main collateral are industrial
assets.
If you are interested to hear
more please contact
US
|