The battle line in Nepal’s conflict have become clearer. After secret talks in New Delhi the Maoists and the mainstream political parties announced on 22 November that they were uniting on the topic of creating a constituent assembly. It looks that the king who seized absolute power in February 05 is as isolated at home as he is unpopular with Nepal’s main allies abroad. But he is solidly in charge.

Ever since February the Maoists have been edging closer to a coalition of seven democratic parties. The king has shunned dialogue with either the Maoists or the parties. Being under pressure from India government and seeing a chance to move into mainstream the Maoists pursued an alliance with the parties and to built trust declared a three months ceasefire running out beginning December. It’s not that the Maoists have changed their tag, but they have recognized that they cannot overrun Kathmandu. In addition there is going on a steady trickle of guerillas surrendering to the army, suggesting that their morale has reached a low point.

The agreement reached in Delhi calls for a boycott of municipal elections beginning next year and calls for the constituent assemble, a longtime goal for the Maoists, which will not give much of a chance to the survival of the monarchy. The 12 point document published also calls for UN supervision of laying down the weapons by Army and Maoists.

But crucial disagreements remain. The parties want the parliament reinstated and an all party government formed to hold talks with the Maoists before a constituent assembly is formed. The Maoists , who are not in parliament prefer a national conference of all democratic forces (without representatives of the monarchy)

On the other side the King is still strong as he controls army, police and government. If the Maoists return to violence then the democratic parties will be in an unsustainable position having associated with them. If the Maoists remain at peace then there is little need for the government to deal with them.

The parties and the Maoists may regard isolating the king and casting him as a warmonger, unwilling to negotiate as an end in itself. This would step up international pressure on him.
Coldly treated by India he seems to be counting on China to come to his support and indeed this calculation could come true.
While his enemies plotted the latest ambush he was on a tour in African Capitals. Does this mean that his enemy use only their chances when he is away?

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